Effect of Climate Change on Annual Streamflow of Bakırçay River
Global warming and its impacts are known cause serious problems in terms of the sustainability of natural resources. In this study, 43-years of meteorological parameters such as temperature, precipitation and evaporation belong to 9 meteorological observation stations in the coast of Aegean Sea, which is in the west of Turkey and 17-years of data belongs to Bakırçay river which is in the same area with the stations and flow into the Aegean Sea, were used. The Pettitt change-point analysis was used to determine the change points belonging to climatic parameters and streamflow of the river. In addition, the Box-Jenkins method and the ARIMA model were used for trend analyses with which trends were determined. Furthermore, Kendall’s tau and Spearman’s correlation tests were used, to determine the relationship between the two parameters. As a result of the Pettitt test, while the change years for evaporation, temperature and precipitation were determined to be 1997, 1993 and 1993 respectively, the change years for the streamflow of Bakırçay river was determined to be 2008. As a result of the trend analyses, it could be determined that there was a noticeable increase in temperature and evaporation values, and that there was a decrease in the streamflow of the river. However, it was also determined that the correlations between the river streamflow and climatic parameters, and the change of these parameters according to years were determined to be statistically insignificant (p>0.05). As a result, it is considered that the effects of climate change on river streamflow could be changeable and that many factors such as anthropogenic effects, geographical location, agricultural activities, residential areas and population density should be taken into account in determining the effects of global warming on river systems. It is suggested that evaluation models and management strategies specified regionally and appropriate to the objective be used in evaluating the effects of the climate change on the hydrological processes of rivers.
Full Text:PDF (Türkçe)
Arnell, N. W., Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 7(5), 619-641, 2003.
IPCC, (ed.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 p., 2007.
IPCC, (ed.), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, 881 p., 2001.
Christensen, J. H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, R., Jones, R., Kolli, R. K., Kwon, W., Laprise, R., Magaña Rueda, V., Mearns, L., Menéndez, C. G., Räisänen, J., Rinke, A., Sarr, A., Whetton, P., Regional Climate Projections, In: Climate Change, 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. M. B., Miller, H. L., (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. p. 847-940, 2007.
Zhang, L., Lu, W., Yang, Q., An, Y., Li, D., Gong, L., Hydrological impacts of climate change on streamflow of Dongliao River watershed in Jilin Province, China, Chinese Geographical Science, 22(5), 522-530, 2012.
Bozkurt, D., Sen, O. L., Climate change impacts in the Euphrates–Tigris Basin based on different model and scenario simulations, Journal of Hydrology, 480, 149-161, 2013.
Herawati, H., Suripin, Suharyanto, Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Tropical Lowland of Kapuas River, West Borneo, Indonesia, Procedia Engineering, 125, 185-192, 2015.
Zhou, Y., Shi, C., Fan, X., Shao, W., The influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities on annual runoff of Huangfuchuan basin in northwest China, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 120(1-2), 137-
Pumo, D., Caracciolo, D., Viola, F., Noto, L. V., Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins, Science of The Total Environment, 542, Part A, 76-92, 2016.
Ejder, T., Kale, S., Acar, S., Hisar, O., Mutlu, F., Restricted effects of climate change on annual streamflow of Sarıçay stream (Çanakkale, Turkey), Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 5(1), 7-11, 2016.
Ejder, T., Kale, S., Acar, S., Hisar, O., Mutlu, F., Effects of Climate Change on Annual Streamflow of Kocabaş Stream (Çanakkale, Turkey), Journal of Scientific Research and Reports, 11(4), 1-11, 2016.
Kale, S., Ejder, T., Hisar, O., Mutlu, F., Climate Change Impacts On Streamflow of Karamenderes River (Çanakkale, Turkey), Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 5(2), 1-6, 2016.
Anonim, Kuzey Ege Havzası Su Kalitesi İzleme Raporu, Çevresel Etki Değerlendirme, İzin ve Denetim Genel Müdürlüğü, Çevre ve Şehircilik Bakanlığı, Ankara, TURKEY, 31 p., 2014.
Aydın, Ş., Investigation of Heavy Metal Fractions in Surface Sediments from Bakirçay and Gediz Rivers, MSc Thesis, Dokuz Eylül University, İzmir, Turkey, 2006.
Sertkaya Doğan, Ö., Soma Şehrinin Fonksiyonel Gelişimi, Coğrafya Dergisi, 23, 1-18, 2011.
Pettitt, A. N., A Non-Parametric Approach to the Change-Point Problem, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), 28(2), 126-135, 1979.
Hamed, K. H., Ramachandra Rao, A., A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data, Journal of Hydrology, 204(1–4), 182-196, 1998.
Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G., Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden Day, San Francisco, 1976.
Ebisuzaki, W., A method to estimate the statistical significance of a correlation when the data are serially correlated, Journal of Climate, 10(9), 2147-2153, 1997.
Kadılar, C., SPSS Uygulamalı Zaman Serileri Analizine Giriş. Bizim Büro Yayınevi, 2005.
Mann, H. B., Nonparametric Tests Against Trend, Econometrica, 13(3), 245-259, 1945.
Kendall, M. G., Rank Correlation Methods. Hafner Publishing Co., New York, 1955.
Huo, Z., Feng, S., Kang, S., Li, W., Chen, S., Effect of climate changes and water-related human activities on annual stream flows of the Shiyang River basin in arid north-west China, Hydrological Processes, 22(16), 3155-3167, 2008.
Durdu, Ö. F., Effects of climate change on water resources of the Büyük Menderes river basin, western Turkey, Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 34(4), 319-332, 2010.
IPCC, (ed.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, 1032 p., 2001.
Chen, Y., Xu, Z., Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin, Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 48(1), 65-73, 2005.
Zhang, X., Aguilar, E., Sensoy, S., Melkonyan, H., Tagiyeva, U., Ahmed, N., Kutaladze, N., Rahimzadeh, F., Taghipour, A., Hantosh, T.H., Albert, P., Semawi, M., Ali, M.K., Said Al-Shabibi, M. H., Al-Oulan, Z., Zatari, T., Al Dean Khelet, I., Hamoud, S., Sagir, R., Demircan, M., Eken, M., Adiguzel, M., Alexander, L., Peterson, T. C., Wallis, T., Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 110(D22104), 1-12, 2005.
Alcamo, J., Moreno, J. M., Nováky, B., Bindi, M., Corobov, R., Devoy, R. J. N., Giannakopoulos, C., Martin, E., Olesen, J. E., Shvidenko, A., Europe, In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J., van der Linden, P., Hanson, C., (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA. p. 541-580, 2007.
Sensoy, S., Demircan, M., Alan, I. Third International Scientific Conference on Water Observation and Information Systems for Decision Support (BALWOIS). Ohrid, Macedonia, 1-9, 2008.
Sütgibi, S., Büyük Menderes Havzasının Sıcaklık, Yağış ve Akım Değerlerindeki Değişimler ve Eğilimler, Marmara Coğrafya Dergisi, 31, 398-414, 2015.
Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Wu, S., Palutikof, J. P., (eds.), Climate Change and Water. 6th Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 p., 2008.
Dixon, M. D., Stromberg, J. C., Price, J. T., Galbraith, H., Freimer, A. K., Larsen, E. W., Potential effects of climate change on the upper San Pedro riparian ecosystem, In: Ecology and Conservation of the San Pedro River, Stromberg, J. C., Tellman, B., (eds.). University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona, USA. p. 57-72, 2009.
Ozkul, S., Fistikoglu, O., Harmancioglu, N. TMMOB 2. Su Politikaları Kongresi. Ankara, TURKEY, 309-322, 2008.
Türkeş, M., Acar Deniz, Z., Climatology of South Marmara Division (North West Anatolia) and observed variations and trends, International Journal of Human Sciences, 8(1), 1579-1600, 2011.
Kahya, E., Kalaycı, S., Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey, Journal of Hydrology, 289(1), 128-144, 2004.
Bahadir, M., A Statistical Analysis of the Flow Changes of Kızılırmak River, Turkish Studies - International Periodical for the Languages, Literature and History of Turkish or Turkic, 6(3), 1339-1356, 2011.
Koçman, A., Sütgibi, S., Hydrograpic/hydrologic characteristics of Gediz river basin in the context of the environmental components – problems and suggestions, Eastern Geographical Review, 28, 155-174, 2012.
Gao, P., Mu, X. M., Wang, F., Li, R., Changes in streamflow and sediment discharge and the response to human activities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(1), 1-10, 2011.
Jackson, C. R., Meister, R., Prudhomme, C., Modelling the effects of climate change and its uncertainty on UK Chalk groundwater resources from an ensemble of global climate model projections, Journal of Hydrology, 399(1-2), 12-28, 2011.
Dügel, M., Kazanci, N., Assessment of water quality of the Büyük Menderes River (Turkey) by using ordination and classification of macroinvertebrates and environmental variables, Journal of Freshwater Ecology, 19(4), 605-612, 2004.
Yercan, M., Dorsan, F., Ul, M., Comparative analysis of performance criteria in irrigation schemes: a case study of Gediz river basin in Turkey, Agricultural Water Management, 66(3), 259-266, 2004.
Kaçan, E., Ülkü, G., Turan, F. International Congress on River Basin Management. Antalya, TURKEY, 54-63, 2007.
Guo, S., Wang, J., Xiong, L., Ying, A., Li, D., A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China, Journal of Hydrology, 268(1–4), 1-15, 2002.
Liu, Z., Xu, Z., Huang, J., Charles, S. P., Fu, G., Impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China, Hydrological Processes, 24(2), 196-208, 2010.
Xu, H., Taylor, R., Xu, Y., Quantifying uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on river discharge in sub-catchments of the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins, China, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(1), 333-344, 2011.
Islam, A., Sikka, A. K., Saha, B., Singh, A., Streamflow Response to Climate Change in the Brahmani River Basin, India, Water Resources Management, 26(6), 1409-1424, 2012.
Chen, H., Xiang, T., Zhou, X., Xu, C.-Y., Impacts of climate change on the Qingjiang Watershed’s runoff change trend in China, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 26(6), 847-858, 2012.
Chien, H., Yeh, P. J.-F., Knouft, J. H., Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in agricultural watersheds of the
Midwestern United States, Journal of Hydrology, 491, 73-88, 2013.
Akbulak, Y., Dünya, Available from: http://www.dunya.com/kullanilabilir-su-kaynaklarina-iliskin-dunya-ve-turkiye-gercekleri-118491h.htm. Access Date: 25.10.2015.
Hisar, O., Kale, S., Özen, Ö., Sustainability of Effective Use of Water Sources in Turkey, In: Sustainable Water Use and Management: Examples of New Approaches and Perspectives, Leal Filho, W., Sümer, V., (eds.). Springer International Publishing, Cham. p. 205-227, 2015.