ANALYSIS OF SYNTHETIC CLIMATE DATA IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ARIMA MODEL IN ISPARTA

Muhammet BAHADIR, Sinan SARAÇLI
1.480 716

Abstract


The ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) model, which is based on analyzing mobile temporal series after transformation into inert series, has been used in this study. The temperature, vaporization and precipitation trends for the past years were taken into consideration and the trends up to 2015 were determined. The analysis revealed positive relationships among the temperature, precipitation and vaporization trends. It was concluded that while there would be a 0,2 0C decrease in temperature together with an approximate decrease of 94 mm in vaporization, the precipitation corresponding to the extreme variations of the precipitation series shall increase up to 80 mm in the year 2015.

Keywords


ARIMA model, Synthetic series, Box-Jenkins technique, Isparta, trend,

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