Kamu İçborcuna Tahammül Sınırı ve Kötü Denge: Borç Krizi İçin Ampirik Bir Model

Ata ÖZKAYA
1.887 727

Öz


2000-2001 Türk finansal krizinin 1994 krizinden uzun bir zaman sonra meydana gelmiş olması, politikacı ve yatırımcılar nazarında 2000-2001 krizi için “bu kez farklı” yönünde bir yanılsama yaratmıştır. Makroekonomik dinamiklerin çoklu-denge doğurabilecek durumuda olduğunu düşünelim, öyle ki bu dengelerin oluştuğu değerler : “kötü” ve”iyi” olarak nitelendirilsin. Dolayısı ile finansal pazarlarda meydana gelen ani kaymaları temsil eden finansal krizler iyi dengeden kötü dengeye doğru bir yerdeğiştirme olarak değerlendirilir. Bu çalışmamızda, enflasyon yaratılarak borcun değerinin azaltıldığı dinamik bir kamu borçlanması modeli oluşturduk ve bu modelin kapalı çözümü ile faizin çoklu-dengelerini belirledik. Daha sonra kaos teorisini kullanarak modelimizi, Türkiye’nin finansal serbestleşme sürecindeki (1989-2010) verileri üzerinde test ettik. Amacımız, modelimizde ortaya çıkan çoklu-dengenin, gerçek verilerle doğrulanıp doğrulanamayacağını araştırmaktır. Amacımıza istinaden ilgili borç faiz oranlarını faz-uzayında inceleyerek kamu içborç dinamiklerinin iyi dengeden saparak kötü dengeye, yani çok yüksek faiz oranlarına doğru izlediği faz-güzergahını tespit ettik. Buna paralel olarak da ilgili borç dinamiğin maksimum Lyapunov katsayısını hesap ederek,1994 ve 2000-2001 krizlerinin aslında incelenen döneme ait faz-uzayında tespit ettiğimiz kaotik davranışın parçaları olduğunu gösterdik. Literatürde ardışık borç krizlerini açıklamada kullanılan çoklu-dengenin araştırmamız neticesinde 1994 ve 2000-2001 krizlerinde de rol aldığını ampirik olarak gösterdiğimiz için daha iyi anlıyoruz ki, Türk ekonomisinin finansal serbestleşme sürecinde sıklıkla yaşadığı yüksek enflasyon, bankacılık krizleri ve kur krizlerinin arkasında kamu içborcu önemli bir etken olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır.

Anahtar kelimeler


Borç Krizleri, Bu Kez Farklı Sendromu, Çoklu-Denge, Kaos Teorisi, Borç Faizi

Tam metin:

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18092/ijeas.93008

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