TÜRKİYE’YE YÖNELİK TURİZM TALEBİNİN GÖRÜNÜRDE İLİŞKİSİZ REGRESYON MODELLERİ İLE İNCELENMESİ

Mina AKSAKAL, Çiğdem ARICIGİL ÇİLAN
2.510 1.042

Öz


Günümüzde turizm sektörünün turistik mal ve hizmetlerin talebine etki eden faktörlere karşı aşırı duyarlı olması bu sektördeki talep tahminlerini ve talebe etki eden faktörlerin analizini oldukça önemli duruma getirmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin Turizm alanındaki pazar payının önemli bir bölümünü oluşturan Avrupa ülkelerinin Türkiye’ye yönelik turizm talebinin modellenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla Görü-nürde İlişkisiz Regresyon Modelleri (GİR) kullanılmış ve bu modeller temel alınarak tahmin edilen para-metreler, En Küçük Kareler (EKK) tahminleri ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Ayrıca çalışma kapsamında seçilen Avrupa ülkelerinin Türkiye’ye yönelik turizm talebini etkileyen faktörler incelenmiş ve bu faktörlere göre ülkeler karşılaştırılmıştır. GİR modeli kullanılarak elde edilen parametre tahminlerinin klasik regresyon modeli tahmin tekniklerine kıyasla daha etkin sonuçlar verdiği gözlenmiştir. Bu çalışma, turizm planla-malarının yapılması ve turizm politikalarının belirlenmesinde dünyada yaygın olarak kullanılmayan, Tür-kiye’deki turizm talep tahmin ve modelleme çalışmalarında yer almamış GİR modelinin bir karar yöntemi olarak kullanılmasını önermektedir.

Anahtar kelimeler


Görünürde İlişkisiz Regresyon Modelleri, Turizm Talebi Tahmini, En Küçük Kare

Tam metin:

PDF


DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18092/ijeas.84319

Referanslar


BAHAR, Ozan ve KOZAK, Metin (2008), Turizm Ekonomisi, İkinci Baskı, Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık

BALDIGARA, Tea (2013), “Forecasting Tourism Demand in Croatia: A Comparison of Different Extrapolative Methods”, Journal of Business Administration Research, 2(1), 84-92

BALTAGI, Badi, GARVIN, Susan ve KERMAN, Stephen (1989), “Further Monte Carlo Evidence on Seemingly Unrelated Regressions with Unequal Number of Observations,” Annales D′Economie et de Statistique, 14, 103-115.

BALTAGI, Badi H. (2008), Econometrics, Dördüncü Baskı, Verlag Berlin Heidelberg: Springer

BINKLEY, James K. ve NELSON Carl H. (1988), “A Note on the Efficiency of Seemingly Unrelated Regression,” The American Statistician”, 42(2), 137-139.

OLAJIDE, Damilola ve LUDBROOK, Anne (2012),” Diet, Risk Of Obesity and Socioeconomic Circumstances Of Individuals in the UK: A Seemingly Unrelated Approach”, Nordic Journal of Health Economics, 1(2),100-118

CHEN, Ching-Fu ve SOO, K. Tong (2007), “Cost structure and productivity growth of the Taiwanese international tourist hotels”,Tourism Management, 28, 1400-1407

ÇIMAT, Ali ve BAHAR, Ozan (2003), “Turizm Sektörünün Türkiye Ekonomisi İçindeki Yeri ve Önemi Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme”, Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, (6), 1-18

ÇUHADAR, Murat (2013), “Türkiye’ye Yönelik Dış Turizm Talebinin MLP, RBF ve TDNN Yapay Sinir Ağı Mimarileri ile Modellenmesi ve Tahmini: Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz” , Journal of Yasar University, 8(31) 5274-5295

DWIVEDI, T.D. and V.K. Srivastava (1978), “Optimality of Least Squares in the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations Model,” Journal of Econometrics, 7, 391-395

FOSCHI, Paolo, KONTOGHIORGHES, Erricos.J.(2002), ”Seemingly unrelated regression model with unequal size observations:computational aspects”, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 41(1), 211 – 229

FOSCHI, Paolo, KONTOGHIORGHES, Erricos .J.(2003), ” Estimating seemingly unrelated regression models with vector autoregressive disturbances”, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 44, 3-35

FOSCHI, Paolo, BELSLEY, David, A KONTOGHIORGHES, Erricos.J.(2003), ”A comparative study of algorithms for solving seemingly unrelated regressions models”, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 44, 3 – 35

GREENE, H., William(2002), Econometric Analysis, Beşinci Baskı, New Jersey: Prentice Hall

HAMADEH, Mohamad ve KHOUEIRI, Roy (2012), “Estimating The Demand For Tourism In Lebanon”, International Journal of Business and Economics Perspectives 7(1), 117-125

HYUNGSIK, Roger Moon ve BENOİT, Perron (2006), “Seemingly Unrelated Regressions”, İnternet adresi: http://www.mapageweb.umontreal.ca/

perrob/palgrave.pdf, Erişim Tarihi:24.02.2013

HWANG, Hae-Shin (1990), “Estimation of Linear SUR Model with Unequal Numbers of Observations, Review of Economics and Statistics”, 72, 510-515.

JACKSON, John. E. (2002), “A Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model for Analyzing Multiparty Elections”, Political Analysis, 10(1),49-65

KESHAVARZI, Sareh, AYATOLLAHI, Seyyed M.T, ZARE, Najaf, FARKHONDEH, Sharif (2013),” Quality of life of childbearing age women and its associated factors: an application of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models”, Quality of Life Research, 22 (6), 1255-1263

KMENTA, Jan (1986), Elements of Econometrics, Mcmillan Publishing Company

KMENTA, Jan ve GILBERT, F., Roy (1968), “Small Sample Properties of Alternative Estimators of Seemingly Unrelated Regressions”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63 (324), 1180

KONTOGHIORGHES, Erricos. J. ve CLARKE, M. R. B. (1995). "An alternative approach for the numerical solution of seemingly unrelated regression equations models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 369-377

KOZAK, Nazmi, KOZAK AKOĞLAN, Meryem ve KOZAK, Metin (2006), Genel Turizm İlkeler-Kavramlar, Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık

MEHMETOĞLU, Mehmet (2010), “Factors Influencing the Willingness to Behave Environmentally Friendly at Home and Holiday Settings”, Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 10(4), 430–447

MEHTA, J.S. ve SWAMY, P.A.V.B. (1976): “Further evidence on the relative Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions with First Order Autoregressive Disturbances effciencies of Zellners seemingly unrelated regressions estimator”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 71 (355), 634-639.

MILLIKEN, G.A. and M. ALBOHALI (1984), “On Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Ordinary Least Squares Estimators to be Best Linear Unbiased Estimators,” The American Statistician, 38, 298-299.

OKTAYER, Nagihan, SUSAM, Nazan ve ÇAK, Murat (2007), Türkiye’de Turizm Ekonomisi, İstanbul: İstanbul Ticaret Odası

OLALI, Hasan ve TİMUR, Alp (1998), Turizm Ekonomisi, İzmir: Ofis Tica-ret Matbaacılık

OLAMIDE, E.I ve ADEPOJU, A.A (2013), “Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions with First Order Autoregressive Disturbances”, Studies in Mathematical Sciences, 6 (2), 40-57

ÖNDER, A. Özlem, CANDEMİR, Aykan, KUMRAL, Neşe (2009),” An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of International Tourism Demand: The Case of Izmir”, European Planning Studies, 17(10), 1525-1533

PARKS, R. W. (1967), “Effcient estimation of a system of regression equations when disturbances are both serially and contemporaneously correlated”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62 (318), 500-509

ROSSI, Peter E. (1989), “The ET Interview: Proffessor Arnold Zellner”, Econometric Theory, 5, 287-317

REVANKAR, Nagesh.S. (1974), “Some Finite Sample Results in the Context of Two Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 71, 183-188.

RUFINO, Cesar C. (2011), “Forecasting International Demand for Philippine Tourism”, DLSU Business & Economics Review (21) 1, 61-76

SALMAN, Khalik A. , ARNESSON, L., SORENSSON, A. ve SHUKUR, G.(2010), “Estimating International Tourism Demand for Selected Regions in Sweden and Norway with Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (ISUR)”, Scandinavian Journal of Hospitality and Tourism, 10 (4), 395–410

SMITH, Michael ve KOHN, Robert, (2000). "Nonparametric seemingly unrelated regression," Journal of Econometrics”, vol. 98 (2), 257-281

SRIVASTAVA, Virendra.K., D.E.A, Giles (1987), Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations Models: Estimation And Inference, New York: Marcel Dekker

SRIVASTAVA, Virendra.K. and T.D. Dwivedi (1979), “Estimation of Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations: A Brief Survey,” Journal of Econometrics, 10, 15-32

SONG, Haiyan, ve WITT,F., Stephen (2000), Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: Modern Econometric Approaches, Oxford :Pergamon

SONG, Haiyan ve LI, Gang (2008), “Tourism demand modelling and forecasting A review of recent research”, Tourism Management, 29(2), 203-220

SONG,Haiyan,WITT,F., Stephen ve LI, Gang (2009), Advanced Econometrics of Tourism Demand, New York: Routledge

SOYSAL, Mehmet ve ÖMÜRGÖNÜLŞEN, Mine (2010),” Türk Turizm Sektöründe Talep Tahmini Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, 21(1), 128-136

TAKADA, H., ULLAH, A ve CHEN, Yu-Min (1995), “Estimation of the seemingly unrelated regression model when the error covariance matrix is singular”, Journal of Applied Statistics, 22 (4),517-530

TACQ, Jacques (1997), Multivariate Analysis Techniques in Social Science Research, Sage.

T.C. Devlet Planlama Teşkilatı, Turizm Özel İhtisas Komisyonu Raporu (2007), İnternet adresi: http://plan9.dpt.gov.tr/oik49_turizm/49turizm.pdf, Erişim tarihi 24.02.2013

TIMM, H., Neil(2002), Applied Multivariate Analysis,New York: Springer

UZGÖREN, Nevin (1996), Görünüşte İlişkisiz Regresyon Denklemlerinin Kestiriminde Kullanılan Yöntemlerin Etkinliklerinin Araştırılması -Türkiye İmalat Sanayiinde Bir Uygulama-, Osmangazi Üniversitesi İstatistik ABD Doktora Tezi

VANEGAS Sr, Manuel (2009), ” Tourism Demand Response by Residents of Latin American Countries”, Internatıonal Journal Of Tourısm Research”, 11, 17-29

WAN, Guang.H ve GRIFFITHS,W.E. (1992),”Estimation of risk effects with seemingly unrelated regressions and panel data”, Empirical Economics,17 (1), 35-49

WITT, Stephan F. ve MARTIN, Christine. A. (1987), “Econometric models for forecasting international tourism demand”, Journal of Travel Research,25(3),23-30

ZELLNER, Arnold (1962), “An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation Bias”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57 (298), 348-368

ZELLNER, Arnold ve HUANG (1962), S., David , “Further Properties of Efficient Estimators for Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations”, International Economic Review, 3 (3), 300-313

ZIRAMBA, Emmanuel ve MOYO, Busani (2013), “Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand in South Africa: an Econometric Analysis”, Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 5(5), 260-267