AN ANALYSIS OF THE EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY OVER THE PERIOD OF 1950-2009
study applies a number of econometric techniques: ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, vector
error correction model (VECM), and Granger causality test.
The results of this dissertation show that all the variables are stationary in the first difference. Moreover,
the Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of the long run relationship among the two
variables. The Granger test shows one way causality from economic growth to real net exports. The
causality results are consistent with the results reported by the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).
There is a long run and also short run causality relationship between the real export and the economic
growth. The direction of this causality is from economic growth (real GDP) to real export.
ABDULAI, A and JAQUET, P. (2002), “ Exports and Economic Growth:
Cointegration and Caus ality Evidence for Cote d'Ivoi re”, African Development
Review, Vol. 14, No 1, pp. 1-17.
ABOU-SAIT, F. (2005), “Are Exports the Engine of Economic Growth? An
Application of Cointegration and Caus ality Analysis for Egypt, 1977-2003,
Economic Research Working Paper No 76.
AHMAD, J. and KWAN, A. C. C. (1991) “Causality between exports and
economic growth: Empirical evidence from Africa”, Economics Letters, 37, pp. 243-
ALICI, A. A. and UCAL, M. S. (2003), “Foreign Direct Investment Exports
and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis”, Paper to be presented at the
European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Fifth Annual Conference Universidad Carlos
III de Madrid.
ÁLVAREZ-UDE, F. and GALVEZ, M. G., I. (2008), “Empırıcal Evıdence
Of The Balance Of Payments Constraıned Growth In Cuba. The Effects Of
Comercıal Regımes Sınce 1960”, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6993.
Al-YOUSIF, Y. K. (1999), “On the role of exports in the economic growth of
Malaysia: A multivariate analysis”, International Economic Journal 13: 67 – 75.
AMADE. C; VASAVADA, U.; “Causality between productivity and exports
in agriculture: Evidence from Asia and Latin America”, Journal of Agricultural
ATABEK, A, COSAR, E. and SAHINGOZ, S. (2005), “A New Composite
Leading Indicator for Turkish Economic Activity”, Emerging Markets Fianance and
Trade, Vol. 40, No.1, pp. 45 – 64.
BALASSA, B. (1978), “ Exports and economic growth: further evidence”,
Journal of Development Economics, 5, pp. 181-189.
BALASSA, B., (1985), “ Exports, Policy Choices, and Economic Growth in
developing Countries Aft er the 1973 oil Shock", Journal of Development
Economics, vol. 18, pp. 23-35.
BERUMET, H. and DĐNÇER, N. (2004), “Do Capital Flows Improve
Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets?”, Emerging Markets Finance
and Trade, Vol. 40, No.4, pp.20 – 32.
CENERRY, H. B., (1979), Structural Change and Development Policy, New
York, Oxford University Press.
CĐFTÇĐOĞLU, S. and KARAASLAN, C. (2005), “Comparison of
Macroeconomic Performance of Turkey and East Asian Countries, and Econometric
Analysis of Economic Growth in Turkey”, Problems and Perspectives in
Management, Volume 2, pp. 17 – 24.
DICKEY, D. and FULLER, W. (1981), “ Likelihood Ratio Statistics for
Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, Vol. 49, 1057-1072.
DUTT, S. D. and GHOSH, D. (1994), “An empirical investigation of the
export growth – economic growth relationship”, Applied Economics Letters, 1: 44-
ENDERS, W. (2004), Applied Econometric Time Series, Wiley, New York.
ENGLE, R.F. and GRANGER, C.W.J. (1987); “Cointegration and Error-
Correction: Repres entation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, Vol. 55, 251-
FOSU, A. K. (1990), “Export Composition and the Impact of Export on
Economic Growth of Developing Economies", Economic Letters, vol. 34, pp. 67-71.
FOSU, A. K. (1996), “Primary exports and economic growth in developing
countries”, World Economy, 19: 465 – 475.
GRANGER, C.W.J. (1969), “ Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric
and Cross-Spectral Method,” Econometrica, Vol. 37, No. 3, 424-438.
_____ (1986), “Development in the Study of Cointegrated Economic
Variables,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 48, 213-228.
GRANGER, C.W.J. (1988), “Some Recent Developments in a Concept o f
Causality,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 39, 199-211.
HALICIOĞLU, F. (2007); "A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and
Growth for Turkey”, MPRA Paper 3565, University Library of Munich, Germany,
HENRIQUES, I. and SADORSKY, P. (1996), “Export-led growth or growthdriven
export?”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 3: 440-555.
ISMIHAN, M., OZCAN, K. and TANSEL, A. (2005), “The role of
macroeconomic instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth:
the case of Turkey 1963 – 1999”, Applied Economics, Vol. 37, pp. 239 – 251.
JOANSEN, S. and JUSELIUS, K. (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation
and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money,” Oxford
Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, Vol. 52, 169-210.
KARAGÖZ, M. and SEN, A. (2005), “ Exports and Economic Growth o f
Turkey: Co-integration and Error-Correction Analysis” Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler
Dergisi www.e-sosder.com ISSN:1304-0278 Yaz 2005 C.4 S. 13 (1-15)
KAVOUSSI, R. M. (1984), “ Export Expansion and Economic Growth:
Further Empirical Evidence", Journal of Development Economics, vol.14, pp. 241-
KAWAN, A. C. C and COTSOMITIS, J. (1990), “Economic growth and the
Expanding Export Sector: China 1952-1985, International Economic Review, vol. 5,
KRUEGER, A. (1978), Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development:
Liberalization attempts and Consequences, National Bureau of Economic Research,
KRUGMAN, P.R. (1984), “ Import protection as export promotion, in: H.
Kierzkowski (ed) Monopolistic competition in international trade, Oxford: Oxford
NAS, T. and PERRY, M. (2001), “Turkish Inflation and Real Output
Growth, 1963 – 2000”, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, Vol. 37, No.
, pp. 31 – 46.
OXLEY, L. (1993), “Cointegration, Causality and Export-led growth in
Portugal, 1865- 1985”, Economic Letters, vol. 43, pp. 163-166.
RAM, R. (1985), “Exports and economic growth: some additional evidence”,
Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33, pp. 415-425.
RAM, R. (1987), “Exports and Economic growth in Developing Countries:
Evidence from Time Series and Cross-Section Data”, Economic Development and
Cultural Change, vol.36, pp.51-72.
RUIZ-NAPOLES, P. (2001), “ Liberalization, Exports and Growth in Mexico
-94: A Structural Analysis”, International Review of Applied Economics, Vol.
SALVATORE, D. and ATCER, T. (1991), “ Inward Oriented and Outward
Oriented Trade Strategies”, The Journal of Development Studies, vol. 27, pp. 7-25.
SAN, J. and SUN, F. (1998), “Export-led growth hypothesis for Australia:
An empirical reinvestigation”, Applied Economics Letters 5: 423-428.
TEKIN, A. (2006), “Turkey’s Aborted Attempt at Export – Led Growth
Strategy: Anatomy of the 1970 Economic Reform”, Middle Eastern Studies, Vol.
, No: 1, pp. 33 – 163.
THOMTON, J. (1997), “ Export and economic growth: Evidence from 19th
century Europe”, Economics Letters, 55: 235-240.
TOSUN, M. and ABIZADE, S (2005), “Economic growth and tax
components: an analysis of tax changes in OECD”, Applied Economics, Vol. 37, pp.
TYLER, W. G. (1981), “Growth and Export Expansion in Developing
Countries: Some Empirical Evidence", Journal of Development Economics, vol. 9,
YAGHMAIAN, B. (1994), “An Empirical Investigation of Exports,
Development and Growth in Developing Countries: Challenging the Neoclassical
Theory of Export- Led Growth, World Development, vol. 22.
YILMAZ, B. (2002), “The Role of Trade Strategies for Economic
Development”, Russian and East European Finance and Trade, Vol.38, No.2, pp. 59
Web Page of the Central Bank of Turkey; web page: www.tcmb.gov.tr (last
visiten on 30.11.2207)
Web Page of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2008), A Synopsis of the
Turkish Foreign Policy; web page
http://www.mfa.gov.tr/MFA/ForeignPolicy/Synopsis/economy.htm, [last visited
Web Page of the Undersecret ariat of Treasury; web page:
http://www.treasury.gov.tr/stat/egosterge/I-Uretim/Uretim.xls, [last visited on
Web Page of Under Secret ariat of Foreign Trade; web page:
www.dtm.gov.tr, [last visited on 30.11.2007].
Web Page of Turkish Statistical Institute; web page: www.tuik.gov.tr, The
Foreign Statistics Bulletin, No: 190, 30.11.2007, [last visited on 30.11.2007].