TÜRKİYE’DE ENFLASYON, ENFLASYON BELİRSİZLİĞİ VE BÜYÜME

Seyfettin ARTAN
7.401 1.243

Öz


Çalışmada, Türkiye’de uzun yıllardır devam eden yüksek ve kronik enflasyonun ve bu yüksek enflasyonun ortaya çıkardığı yüksek enflasyon belirsizliğinin büyümeyi ne yönde etkilediği 1987:1-2003:3 döne-mi zaman serisi verilerinden yararlanılarak test edilmiştir. Enflasyon belirsizliğinin elde edilmesinde GARCH analizinden yararlanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, enflasyon ve enflasyon belirsizliği Tür-kiye’de ele alınan dönem içerisinde büyümeyi olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Ancak enflasyon belirsizli-ğinin büyüme üzerindeki olumsuz etkisi enflasyona kıyasla daha fazladır. Şöyle ki, enflasyon oranındaki %1’lik bir artış büyümeyi %0.56 oranında azaltmakta iken, enflasyon belirsizliğindeki %1’lik bir artış büyümeyi %3.95 oranında azaltmaktadır.

Tam metin:

PDF


Referanslar


Akyazı, Haydar ve Artan, Seyfettin (2004), “Türkiye’de Enflasyon-Enflasyon Belirsizliği İlişkisi ve Enflasyon Hedeflemesinin Enflasyon Belirsizliğini Azaltma-daki Rolü”, Bankacılar Dergisi, 48, 3-17.

Apergis, Nicholas (2005), “Inflation Uncertainty and Growth: Evidence from Panel Data”, Australian Economic Papers, 44 (2), 186-197.

Artan, Seyfettin (2006), “Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Enflasyon ve Büyüme: Yatay-Kesit ve Panel Veri Analizi”, İktisat-İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 239, 108-124.

Barro, Robert J. (1991) “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2), 407-443.

Barro, Robert J. (1995), “Inflation and Economic Growth”, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 35 (2), 407-443.

Barro, Robert J. (1996), “Inflation and Growth”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 78 (3), 153-169.

Berber, Metin ve Artan, Seyfettin (2004), “Türkiye’de Enflasyon-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: (Teori-Literatür ve Uygulama)”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 18 (3-4), 103-117. Yıl:1 Cilt:1 Sayı:1, Yaz 2008 ISSN 1307-9832

International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies

Bhatia, R. (1960), “Inflation, Deflation and Economic Development”, IMF Staff Papers, 8 (1), 101-114.

Bollerslev, T. (1986), “Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterosce-dasticity”, Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-327.

Bruno, M. ve Easterly, W. (1996), “Inflation and Growth: in Search of a Sta-ble Relationship”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 78 (3), 139-146.

Bruno, M. ve Easterly, W. (1998), “Inflation Crises and Long-run Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 41 (1), 3-26.

Bullard, J. ve Keating, J.W. (1995), “The Long-run Relationship between Inflation and Output in Postwar Economies”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 36 (3), 477-496.

Chari, V.V., Jones, Larry E. ve Manuelli, Rodolfo E. (1996), “Inflation, Growth and Financial Intermediation” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 78 (3), 41-57.

Clark, Todd E. (1997), “Cross-Country Evidence on Long-run Growth and Inflation”, Economic Inquiry, 35 (1), 70-81.

Engle, Robert F. (1982), “Autoregressive Conditional Hetreoscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation”, Econometrica, 50, 987-1007.

Fischer, Stanly (1983), “Inflation and Growth”, NBER Working Paper Series, WP No: 1235.

Fischer, Stanly (1993), “The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32 (3), 485-511.

Fountas, Stilianos (2001), “The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the UK: 1885-1998”, Economics Letters, 74, 77-83.

Fountas, S., Karanasos, M. ve Kim J. (2002), “Inflation and Output Growth Uncertainty and their Relationship with Inflation and Output Growth”, Economics Letters, 75, 293-301.

Friedman, Milton (1977), “Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment”, Journal of Political Economy, 85, 451-472.

Ghosh, A. ve Phillips S. (1998), “Inflation, Disinflation and Growth”, IMF Working Paper, No: 98/68.

Golob, John E. (1994), “Does Inflation Uncertainty Increase with Inflation”, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, 79, 27-38.

Gordon, R. J. (1971), “Steady Anticipated Inflation: Mirage or Oasis?”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 499-510.

Grier, Kevin B. ve Tullock, Gordon (1989), “An Empirical Analysis of Cross-National Economic Growth, 1951-1980”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 24 (2), 259-276.

Grimes, Arthur (1991), “The Effects of Inflation on Growth: Some Interna-tional Evidence”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 127, 631-644.

Gylfason, Thorvaldur (1991), “Inflation, Growth and External Dept: A View of the Landscape, World Economy, 14, 279-297.

Hess, Gregory D. ve Morris, Charles S. (1996), “The Long-Run Costs of Moderate Inflation”, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, 81, 71-88.

Johnson, Harry G. (1967), “Is Inflation a Retarding Factor in Economic Growth?”, (Ed: Krivine, D.), Fiscal and Monetary Problems in Developing States, Praeger: 121-137.

Joyce, Michael (1997), “Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty”, Bank of Eng-land Quarterly Bulletin, 37, 285-291.

Judson, Ruth ve Orphanides, Athanasios (1999), “Inflation, Volatility and Growth”, International Finance, 2 (1), 117-138.

Karaca, Orhan (2003), “Türkiye’de Enflasyon-Büyüme İlişkisi: Zaman Serisi Analizi”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 4 (2), 257-255.

Karras, Georgios (1993), “Money, Inflation, and Output Growth: Does the Aggregate Supply-Aggregate Demand Model Explain The International Evidence?”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 129 (4), 662-674.

Kim, Sung H. ve Willet, Thomas D. (2000), “Is The Negative Correlation Between Inflation and Growth Real?: An Analysis of the Effects of the Oil Supply Shocks”, Applied Economics Letters, 7 (3), 141-147.

Khan, Mohsin S. ve Senhadji, Abdelhak S. (2000), “Threshold Effects in the Relationship between Inflation and Growth”, IMF Working Paper, WP/00/110, 1-31.

Kirmanoğlu, H. (2001), “Is There Inflation-Growth Trade off in the Turkish Economy?” Canadian Economics Association Annual Meeting, June, Montreal Canada.

Kormendi, Roger C. ve Meguire, Philip G. (1985), “Macroeconomic Deter-minants of Growth: Cross-Country Evidence”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 16 (2), 141-163.

Levine, Ross ve Renelt, David (1992), “A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions”, American Economic Review, 84 (4), 942-963.

Levine, Ross ve Zervos, S. (1993), “What We have Learned about Policy and Growth from Cross-Country Regressions?”, American Economic Review, 83 (2), 426-430.

Ma, Henry (1998), “Inflation, Uncertainty and Growth in Colombia”, IMF Working Paper, WP/98/161, 1-28.

Mallik, G. ve Chowdhury, A. (2001), “Inflation and Economic Growth: Evi-dence from four South Asian Countries”, Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 8 (1), 123-135.

Marhubi, Fahim Al (1998), “Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Inflation Volatility and Growth”, Applied Economics, 30, 1317-1326.

Motley, Brian (1998), “Growth and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study”, Fed-eral Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, 1, 15-28.

Mundell, Robert (1963), “Inflation and Real Interest”, Journal of Political Economy, 71, 280-83.

Nas, Tevfik F. ve Perry, Mark J. (2000), “Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy in Turkey: 1960-1998”, Contemporary Economic Policy, 18 (2), 170-180.

Okun, Arthur (1971), “The Mirage of Steady Inflation”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 485-498.

Sarel, M. (1996), “Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth”, IMF Staff Papers, 43 (1): 199-215.

Thirlwall, A.P. ve Barton, C.A. (1971), “Inflation and Growth: The Interna-tional Evidence”, Banco Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 98, 263-275.

Tobin, James (1965), “Money and Economic Growth”, Econometrica, 33, 671–84.

Tun Wai, U. (1959), “The Relation between Inflation and Economic Devel-opment: A Statistical Inductive”, IMF Staff Papers, 7, 202-209.

TÜSİAD (2002), Enflasyon ve Büyüme Dinamikleri: Gelişmekte Olan Ülke Deneyimleri Işığında Türkiye Analizi, Yayın No: 2002-12/341, İstanbul.